VIX: $27.95 26/2/21
Important fundamental releases: 1st to 5th March 2021
- 10:30 pm Mon 1st Mar AUD Interest Rate
- 07:30 pm Tue 2nd Mar AUD GDP
- 08:30 am Fri 5th Mar USD Employment
Latest Central Bank statements:
USD FOMC: 27th January 2021
- Economic activity and employment has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid. Unemployment rate has remained low.
- Household spending has been rising at a moderate pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak.
- IR: Maintain current rate 0 to 0.25%. Will maintain target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and are on track to exceed it.
CAD Bank of Canada Jan 20th 2020
- Canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback.
- “First quarter of 2021 is expected to be negative. Assuming restrictions are lifted later in the first quarter, the Bank expects a strong second-quarter rebound”.
- Stronger demand is pushing up prices for most commodities, including oil. (Bullish(strength) for the currency)
- Interest Rates: Bank of Canada will maintain its Interest Rate target 0.25%. Will continue their QE
- A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.
- Bank is watching CPI numbers to stay between the 1-3%
CHF Swiss National Bank: September 2020
- GDP expects to stay below pre covid crisis level, shrink 5% since the start of the crisis.
- Inflation: Inflation rate is (-0.6%) expected to edge back to positive. They are paying attention to inflation rate
- IR: Keeping interest rate at -.075%
- Willing to intervene more strongly in the foreign exchange market.
GBP Bank of England Feb 4th 2021
- Inflation target at 2%
- CPI inflation is expected to rise sharply towards the 2% target in the spring.
- If outlook for inflation weakens, the committee stands ready to take whatever additional action is necessary to achieve its remit.
- No intention of tightening monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.
- Will maintain bank rate at 0.10%
- Will continue their version of QE
- Maintaining a target for government bond purchases at £875 Billion
- Signs that consumer spending has softened across a range of indicators & investment intentions have remained weak.
- Household spending expected to pick up in 2021 Q1 as covid restrictions loosen.
- Q4 2020 GDP stronger than expected. Outlook of the economy remains unusually uncertain. Depends on the evolution of the pandemic.
JPY Bank of Japan Jan 21st, 2020
- Decided to follow yield curve control
- Interest rates will remain at -0.10%
- Will purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around 0%.
- WIll continue their version of QE (buying Japanese government bonds) for another 6 months until September 2021.
- The Bank will be monitoring if the CPI exceeds 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner.
EUR ECB Dec 10th, 2020
- Will maintain Interest rates at 0.00%
- Will remain at this level until the Governing council sees inflation outlook get close to but below 2% within their projections.
- Increase their PEPP by 500 Billion Euros
- Will extend this program until March 2022 and/or it determines that the coronavirus crisis phase is over.
- Inflation goal of 2% ceiling. Will keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. ECB will continue its PEPP – Pandemic emergency Purchase programme. Asset purchase program will continue at 20billion euro per month. Will end shortly before increasing interest rates*
NZD: RBNZ February 2021
- Will continue their QE program until confident that consumer price inflation will be sustained at the 2% per annum target.
- Inflation and employment expected to stay below targets over the medium term in the absence of prolonged monetary stimulus.
- Leave interest rates at current level .25%
AUD: RB Of Australia 2nd Feb 2021
- Will maintain interest rates at .10%.
- Will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2% to 3% target range.
- Key factor being employment.
- Will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2% to 3% target range.
- Will continue their QE
- Decided to purchase an additional $100 Billion of bonds issued by the Government at $5 Billion per week.
- Inflation remains low and below central bank targets.
- Economic recovery is well under way and has been stronger than expected.
- Unemployment rate dropped and retail spending strong.
- GDP expected to be at end of 2019 levels by mid 2021.